So many parallels between today's market and the 2000 dotcom + 2008 subprime mortgage bubbles:
1. Paradigm shifts in the investment narrative to justify the valuations of story stocks/investments (e.g. impossible to justify AOL, CDO or TSLA's valuations by fundamentals)
2. "This time is different" justifications in the macro narrative (e.g. the Internet economy, no housing crash in US history, record low interest rates)
3. One sector driving the bulk of market performance (e.g. Tech in 1999, Property in 2007, Tech in 2020)
4. Excessive central bank interference in markets (e.g. Fed rescue of Long Term Capital Management in 1998, Fed rescue of Bear Stearns + failed rescue of Lehman Brothers in 2008, global coordination of central bank rescue in global markets today)
5. Frightening levels of investor complacency towards risk (e.g. AOL-Time Warner merger in 2000, pension funds selling naked CDS in 2007, Bitcoin to $40,000 today)
Remember when Michael Burry called the subprime mortgage crisis in 2005, and everyone laughed in his face?
I'm calling it. The next market crash will happen in the next 2 years. It's time to apply risk-on, people.
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