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How I Became 100% Convinced that Value Investing Was The Superior Investing Methodology
The Value Investing Way: From Graham & Buffett, to Howard Marks, George Soros, Seth Klarman & Monish Pabrai
Oct 8, 2023
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Aaron Pek
28
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How I Became 100% Convinced that Value Investing Was The Superior Investing Methodology
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12
SEA Ltd: Pinduoduo ex-China (Part 1)
Pinduoduo's growth without the China risk
Mar 24
•
Aaron Pek
3
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SEA Ltd: Pinduoduo ex-China (Part 1)
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Unpopular Opinion: Diversified Portfolio > Concentrated Portfolio
"Valuations of Wonderful Businesses aren't what they used to be." #QE
Mar 17
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Aaron Pek
20
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Unpopular Opinion: Diversified Portfolio > Concentrated Portfolio
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8
Value Investors = Business Owners. Here's The Irrefutable Accounting Proof.
“How can you value investors call yourself REAL business owners when you're just trading stocks?” — An actual conversation.
Mar 10
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Aaron Pek
15
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Value Investors = Business Owners. Here's The Irrefutable Accounting Proof.
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5
Floor & Decor vs. Macro (Part 3) | 2018 called, it wants its 34x PE back
Home Depot beat earnings expectations last quarter. Could FND do the same?
Mar 2
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Aaron Pek
6
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Floor & Decor vs. Macro (Part 3) | 2018 called, it wants its 34x PE back
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"Rule No. 1: Never Lose Money" - Warren Buffett
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Stocks [Paid]
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SEA Ltd: Pinduoduo ex-China (Part 1)
Pinduoduo's growth without the China risk
Mar 24
•
Aaron Pek
3
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SEA Ltd: Pinduoduo ex-China (Part 1)
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Floor & Decor vs. Macro (Part 3) | 2018 called, it wants its 34x PE back
Home Depot beat earnings expectations last quarter. Could FND do the same?
Mar 2
•
Aaron Pek
6
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Floor & Decor vs. Macro (Part 3) | 2018 called, it wants its 34x PE back
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Floor & Decor: The NERDIEST Deep-Dive Equity Research Report (Part 2)
A numerical breakdown of FND's sources of historical growth (34% earnings CAGR) - which can be confidently extrapolated to forecast FND's future growth.
Feb 26
•
Aaron Pek
6
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Floor & Decor: The NERDIEST Deep-Dive Equity Research Report (Part 2)
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2
Floor & Decor: Munger's Costco 2.0 (Part 1)
A Brick-and-Mortar Supermarket with SaaS-like ARR and NVDIA-lite Growth? Unbelievable.
Feb 18
•
Aaron Pek
11
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Floor & Decor: Munger's Costco 2.0 (Part 1)
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Hibbett, The Oddball Stock: A Genuinely Mispriced Small-Cap Flying Under The Radar (Part 2)
Nike with Operating Leverage + Apple's share buyback-induced EPS Growth
Jan 28
•
Aaron Pek
2
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Hibbett, The Oddball Stock: A Genuinely Mispriced Small-Cap Flying Under The Radar (Part 2)
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5:23
Hibbett, The Oddball Stock: A Genuinely Mispriced Small-Cap Flying Under The Radar (Part 2)
Nike with Operating Leverage + Apple's share buyback-induced EPS Growth | Listen now
Jan 28
•
Aaron Pek
6
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Hibbett, The Oddball Stock: A Genuinely Mispriced Small-Cap Flying Under The Radar (Part 2)
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HIBBETT: A Mathematical Nike | Financial Deep-Dive (Part 1)
Why did famed value investor John Hempton buy 5% of this diamond-in-the-rough? It's a lean, mean ROIC machine, with an Outsider CEO management style…
Jan 21
•
Aaron Pek
14
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HIBBETT: A Mathematical Nike | Financial Deep-Dive (Part 1)
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Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023
The equal-weighted VIS Portfolio (US stocks) gained 11.5% in 2023 (no M7, details inside). Over the same period, DCA-ing into the S&P 500 gained 10.0…
Jan 14
•
Aaron Pek
19
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Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023
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4
Dollar General: Undervalued Walmart in a Downcycle? Quantifying the Downside (Part 3)
With investors being willing to pay 26x PE for $WMT for its low-risk & highly predictable cash flows, what PE multiple could $DG inflate to one day…
Jan 2
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Aaron Pek
10
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Dollar General: Undervalued Walmart in a Downcycle? Quantifying the Downside (Part 3)
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Is Dollar General a Value Trap... or Value Investing? An Objective Data-Driven Analysis (Part 2)
If $DG's Operating Margins can recover back to historical levels, the potential upside is obvious. So is FY23 underperformance structural or cyclical…
Jan 2
•
Aaron Pek
8
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Is Dollar General a Value Trap... or Value Investing? An Objective Data-Driven Analysis (Part 2)
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ROIIC, Pricing Power & The Outsider CEO | DISNEY Financial Deep-Dive (Part IV)
“This one all-encompassing financial metric boils down the entire Disney valuation to just one question — How & Where can Disney invest to generate…
Dec 10, 2023
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Aaron Pek
7
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ROIIC, Pricing Power & The Outsider CEO | DISNEY Financial Deep-Dive (Part IV)
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A Misunderstood Compounder with ESPN's Brand Moats & Parks' Pricing Power | DISNEY (Part III)
CHARTS, CHARTS, CHARTS! about the 1) Branding Moats of ESPN: The Netflix of Sports and 2) Engines of Pricing Power behind Experiences
Dec 10, 2023
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Aaron Pek
5
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A Misunderstood Compounder with ESPN's Brand Moats & Parks' Pricing Power | DISNEY (Part III)
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Disney Q1 Earnings Review: Why Did $DIS Pop +8% Overnight?
Imagine a racetrack with 10 horses. The first two horses (NFLX and DIS) are peeling away from everyone else; with NFLX still having a sizeable lead over…
Feb 8
•
Aaron Pek
5
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Disney Q1 Earnings Review: Why Did $DIS Pop +8% Overnight?
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2
21:49
Why Did $NYCB Crash -40% Yesterday? (Podcast)
Listen now (22 mins) | Table of Contents: 1. AI-Generated Summary of this Podcast (500 words) 2. AI-Generated Summary of $NYCB’s 4Q results (500 words…
Feb 1
•
Aaron Pek
6
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Why Did $NYCB Crash -40% Yesterday? (Podcast)
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3
27:29
Evergrande Revisited: A Deep Dive
Revisiting my 2021 article about Evergrande when news of the property titan being in trouble first broke out
Jan 29
•
Aaron Pek
9
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Evergrande Revisited: A Deep Dive
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1
Dollar General: -45% in FY23, +45% in FY24? (Part 1)
The largest dollar store chain in America saw abysmal FY23 underperformance. We cover all of them in this report - and use objective data analysis to…
Jan 2
•
Aaron Pek
10
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Dollar General: -45% in FY23, +45% in FY24? (Part 1)
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2
DISNEY: Bob Chapek Did Nothing Wrong | Streaming Industry Primer
Economies of Scale is still the secret to winning in the Media/Streaming industry... little has changed since John Malone was the The Cable Cowboy
Nov 26, 2023
•
Aaron Pek
7
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DISNEY: Bob Chapek Did Nothing Wrong | Streaming Industry Primer
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1
Intel Beyond 2025: 5 Nodes In 4 Years (Part 2)
A Hitchhiker's Guide to RibbonFET, PowerVia, EUV, EMIB and Foveros
Oct 29, 2023
•
Aaron Pek
3
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Intel Beyond 2025: 5 Nodes In 4 Years (Part 2)
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Capital One's FY22 Annual Report MD&A
The Annual Report MD&A with the most Heart & Soul in Corporate America - and what may have inspired Buffett to buy Capital One ($COF). Later this month…
Jul 9, 2023
•
Aaron Pek
12
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Capital One's FY22 Annual Report MD&A
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1
CD PROJEKT RED - The AMEX of the Big Gaming Industry? (Update)
1Q23 Earnings Call Summary
Jun 4, 2023
•
Aaron Pek
10
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CD PROJEKT RED - The AMEX of the Big Gaming Industry? (Update)
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TL;DR on SVB Financial in <1,800 words (BULLET POINTS!)
"The KEY TAKEAWAY here is that SVB’s bank run was an IDIOSYNCRATIC event due to their highly unique client base — mostly institutional clients in the…
Mar 12, 2023
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Aaron Pek
8
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TL;DR on SVB Financial in <1,800 words (BULLET POINTS!)
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The Value Investing Substack Portfolio Gained +16.6% In 2022, While the S&P 500 Lost -1.5%
An Equally-Weighted Portfolio in all the stocks on Value Investing Substack would have delivered +16.6%. Over the same period, DCA-ing into the S&P500…
Feb 7, 2023
•
Aaron Pek
10
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The Value Investing Substack Portfolio Gained +16.6% In 2022, While the S&P 500 Lost -1.5%
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META: Connecting People <Nokia jingle>
An Open Letter from a Contrarian to Mark Zuckerberg (and the Meta Board of Directors); And How to Justify a Meta Investment at 24x PE
Nov 4, 2022
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Aaron Pek
12
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META: Connecting People <Nokia jingle>
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✨ BJCORP Update - Is Jalil Resigning as CEO of BJCORP? (Update: Jalil has resigned)
And what might the potential impact to BJCORP's share price be from that?
Mar 19, 2022
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Aaron Pek
2
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✨ BJCORP Update - Is Jalil Resigning as CEO of BJCORP? (Update: Jalil has resigned)
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"It's better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." - Warren Buffett
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Industry Primers
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Semiconductor Industry Primer
This Semiconductor Industry Primer will help you understand each of the 5 stages of the supply chain in the leading-edge semiconductor industry — and…
Oct 15, 2023
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Aaron Pek
32
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Semiconductor Industry Primer
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Are $100 Oil Prices Realistic? Maybe Not By End-2023, But Almost Certainly By 2025.
Fantastic Oil Price Insights Summarized from Goehring & Rozencwajg, Arjun Murti of Super-Spiked, Open Insights & Value Investing Substack
Sep 30, 2023
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Aaron Pek
18
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Are $100 Oil Prices Realistic? Maybe Not By End-2023, But Almost Certainly By 2025.
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Big Gaming Industry Primer
The Competitive Moats of AAA Gaming Studios Are Like the Cigarette & Casino Industries Combined
Jun 2, 2023
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Aaron Pek
16
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Big Gaming Industry Primer
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⚒️ The Value Investing Substack List of INDUSTRY PRIMERS
100+ Financial Substack Sorted by Sector & Macro
Apr 30, 2023
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Aaron Pek
30
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⚒️ The Value Investing Substack List of INDUSTRY PRIMERS
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About the Author
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My 2nd Nikkei Article: The Creative Potential of Look East 2.0
My article made it into this week's print version of Nikkei Asia! Link to digital version below.
Aug 11, 2023
•
Aaron Pek
12
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My 2nd Nikkei Article: The Creative Potential of Look East 2.0
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🗞️ My Article in The Edge Newspaper
Find My Latest Macro Commentary on Page 54 of The Edge edition dated June 19, 2023 (both free & paid subscribers can vote in polls below)
Jul 2, 2023
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Aaron Pek
11
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🗞️ My Article in The Edge Newspaper
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My First Nikkei Article
I recently had the distinct pleasure of participating in the writeup of a Nikkei Asia article with Guanie Lim, an assistant professor of the National…
Apr 28, 2023
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Aaron Pek
4
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My First Nikkei Article
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🎙️ My Interview on the Contrarian Investor Podcast - INTC, OXY, Hibiscus, China Macro
What Is Value Investing Substack? Learn what we're capable of through three interviews - 2) Malaysia's 8.7% GDP Growth in 2022 + 3) BUKALAPAK…
Apr 23, 2023
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Aaron Pek
5
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🎙️ My Interview on the Contrarian Investor Podcast - INTC, OXY, Hibiscus, China Macro
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"Confronted with a challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto, Margin of Safety." - Benjamin Graham
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Berkshire Hathaway's 2023 Results — Overview
A 30,000 foot view of 2023 results
Published on The Rational Walk
•
Feb 27
Floor & Decor: The NERDIEST Deep-Dive Equity Research Report (Part 2)
A numerical breakdown of FND's sources of historical growth (34% earnings CAGR) - which can be confidently extrapolated to forecast FND's future growth.
Feb 26
•
Aaron Pek
6
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Floor & Decor: The NERDIEST Deep-Dive Equity Research Report (Part 2)
valueinvesting.substack.com
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2
Floor & Decor: Munger's Costco 2.0 (Part 1)
A Brick-and-Mortar Supermarket with SaaS-like ARR and NVDIA-lite Growth? Unbelievable.
Feb 18
•
Aaron Pek
11
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Floor & Decor: Munger's Costco 2.0 (Part 1)
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US Banking Groundhog Day?
Is the banking system finally breaking under Jerome Powell’s iron fist? Or is the NYCB crash a company specific issue? Might it even be an opportunity…
Published on Fallacy Alarm
•
Feb 11
Weekend thoughts follow up: $NYCB insider buying and mea culpa
Last week, I posted on NYCB’s on-going disaster (Weekend thoughts: $NYCB and regretting sweetheart deals). I got tons of inbounds on it, and there was a…
Published on Yet Another Value Blog
•
Feb 11
Disney Q1 Earnings Review: Why Did $DIS Pop +8% Overnight?
Imagine a racetrack with 10 horses. The first two horses (NFLX and DIS) are peeling away from everyone else; with NFLX still having a sizeable lead over…
Feb 8
•
Aaron Pek
5
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Disney Q1 Earnings Review: Why Did $DIS Pop +8% Overnight?
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RISK: The Definitive Value Investing Definition
What does Buffett really mean by "Rule No. 1: Never Lose Money"?
Feb 4
•
Aaron Pek
9
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RISK: The Definitive Value Investing Definition
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4
21:49
Why Did $NYCB Crash -40% Yesterday? (Podcast)
Listen now (22 mins) | Table of Contents: 1. AI-Generated Summary of this Podcast (500 words) 2. AI-Generated Summary of $NYCB’s 4Q results (500 words…
Feb 1
•
Aaron Pek
6
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Why Did $NYCB Crash -40% Yesterday? (Podcast)
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3
27:29
Evergrande Revisited: A Deep Dive
Revisiting my 2021 article about Evergrande when news of the property titan being in trouble first broke out
Jan 29
•
Aaron Pek
9
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Evergrande Revisited: A Deep Dive
valueinvesting.substack.com
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1
Hibbett, The Oddball Stock: A Genuinely Mispriced Small-Cap Flying Under The Radar (Part 2)
Nike with Operating Leverage + Apple's share buyback-induced EPS Growth
Jan 28
•
Aaron Pek
2
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Hibbett, The Oddball Stock: A Genuinely Mispriced Small-Cap Flying Under The Radar (Part 2)
valueinvesting.substack.com
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5:23
Hibbett, The Oddball Stock: A Genuinely Mispriced Small-Cap Flying Under The Radar (Part 2)
Nike with Operating Leverage + Apple's share buyback-induced EPS Growth | Listen now
Jan 28
•
Aaron Pek
6
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Hibbett, The Oddball Stock: A Genuinely Mispriced Small-Cap Flying Under The Radar (Part 2)
valueinvesting.substack.com
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HIBBETT: A Mathematical Nike | Financial Deep-Dive (Part 1)
Why did famed value investor John Hempton buy 5% of this diamond-in-the-rough? It's a lean, mean ROIC machine, with an Outsider CEO management style…
Jan 21
•
Aaron Pek
14
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HIBBETT: A Mathematical Nike | Financial Deep-Dive (Part 1)
valueinvesting.substack.com
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Value Investing Substack
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